Noel Stott, Senior Research Fellow: Arms Management Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)

The Government of Norway, in co-operation with the US-based Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), convened an international conference on “Achieving the Vision of a World Free of Nuclear Weapons”, in Oslo that  took place from the 26th to the 27th of February 2008.

The conference aimed to explore how all states could contribute to overcoming the current impasse in the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime.

The Norwegian Foreign Minister, Mr. Jonas Gahr Støre, opened the conference together with former U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz. Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), delivered the keynote speech.

There is a growing school of thought that the dangerous tensions in the global nuclear order cannot be reconciled without dedicated movement toward eliminating all nuclear arsenals. However, nuclear weapon and non-nuclear weapon states have not even begun to seriously explore the capabilities and political practices that would have to be developed in order to verify and enforce a complete ban on nuclear weapons.

The conference began by posing some of the major questions that must be resolved to make complete disarmament feasible and by identifying practical steps needed to do this. These included:

• What further steps could nuclear weapon states take to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in their national security policies?
• What further steps could non-nuclear weapon states take to strengthen the non-proliferation regime and promote a world free of nuclear weapons?
• How do regional conflicts impact efforts to reduce nuclear dangers?
• How can increasing demand for nuclear energy be squared with disarmament objectives?

Many speakers emphasised that the need to have tighter control over nuclear weapons in the short term and to eliminate them in the longer term is not, and must not, be seen to be because of the threat of international terrorism. The present threat comes almost entirely from those states that have nuclear weapons.

Close Calls

According to former US Senator Sam Nunn there have been “more than a few close calls” that could have led to a nuclear event. Nunn argued that averting the ‘nightmare’ will require the United States, Russia, and other nuclear-armed powers to start taking greater steps towards reducing the relevance of nuclear weapons with the aim of eliminating them. Without such moves, Nunn contends, the United States will not “get the cooperation we need around the globe” in order to curb the spread of nuclear technologies and capabilities.

Nunn recommended that one of the first steps that the United States should pursue with Russia is extending the amount of time needed to launch each country’s nuclear weapons. He described the current posture of both sides being able to fire some of their missiles within minutes as “insane.” Alternatively, Nunn suggested the two countries should seek to create barriers that would extend launching times to at least a week. “If everyone had the posture where they could not shoot for a week … that would make nuclear weapons less relevant”.

Nunn also warned that making progress on nuclear issues will be complicated if the United States does not reach some accommodation on missile defence with Russia.

Treaty of Pelindaba

With UN member states beginning to prepare for the next review conference (in 2010) of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the recent conference is unquestionably timely. With the NPT conference looming, African states must move forward the process of implementing the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (Treaty of Pelindaba), while also ensuring that Africa’s right to peaceful nuclear technology is maintained.

The African Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (ANWFZ) covers the entire African continent as well as the islands of: Agalega Island, Bassas da India, Canary Islands, Cape Verde, Cardagos Carajos Shoals, Chagos Archipelago - Diego Garcia, Comoros, Europa, Juan de Nova, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Prince Edward & Marion Islands, Sao Tome and Principe, Reunion, Rodrigues Island, Seychelles, Tromelin Island, and Zanzibar & Pemba Islands.

By late February all 53 members of the African Union had signed the Treaty (excluding Morocco and including the territory known as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic) and twenty three (23) countries had deposited their instruments of ratification with the AU Commission. The following countries have not yet ratified the Treaty: Angola, Benin, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Rep., Cape Verde, Chad, Comoros, Congo, Djibouti, Democratic Rep. of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sao Tome & Principe, Sudan, Tunisia, Uganda and Zambia. Morocco is not a member of the African Union and has not signed the Treaty.

More than 10 years after its adoption, five more ratifications are still needed to bring the Treaty into force. While achieving the vision of a world free of nuclear weapons may be some time off, achieving it in Africa is feasible now. Africa is de facto a zone free of such weapons, but until the Pelindaba Treaty enters-into-force, African states are not legally bound to keep it that way.

Approaches to dealing with nuclear threats cannot be based on dividing the world into good and bad actors or the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’. As the Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission concluded in its 2006 Report, “so long as any state has such weapons others will want them. So long as any such weapons remain in any state’s arsenal, there is a high risk that they will one day be used, by design or accident. Any such use would be catastrophic.”

Pelindaba needs to be promoted and enforced. Africa can and should show leadership by, as a necessary step towards the achievement of a worldwide nuclear-free zone, ensuring the Treaty’s entry into force as soon as possible and certainly before the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in 2010.